Minions yet !
Back on topic, thus far the forecasts have been pretty much on the ball Chris, so I'll hold off on the weather rock meantime.
JohnnyO. o/
There may be an amendment to the blog link, chaps. I've just got back and the wave 2 forcing on the vortex has been delayed - I've now got to check through the latest in the new Netweather "In Depth" model discussion.
EDIT: It appears that the MJO, which I mentioned previously) is set to head into phase 1 from Tuesday onwards, as opposed to remaining in phase 8. This, apparently, means that we are likely to see similar conditions to those we had in November once this cold spell finishes; a European ridge will influence the south-east, with largely settled conditions there includsing possible light frosts. Further north and west there may well be more of a south-westerly flow, which would usualy be expected to be quite unsettled, however, the jet stream is weak at present and there seems little indication of lows swinging-in with significant wind and rain until late next week (circa. 17th onwards) if at all. What appears to be happening is that, rather than the wave 1 forcing dividing nthe polar vortex, it and the stratospheric warming are going to shift it from central Canada to Siberia - as it passes to our north it flattens the highly amplified Scandinavian longwave ridge to form a European ridge (centred much further south and a touch further west), thereby changing our expected weather.
Beyond this, there are signs that an early final warming of the vortex (which happens each spring, usually during March and April as the Northern Hemisphere warms) and a wave 2 forcing may take place at the end of Febuary, perhaps after the vortex shifts to Greenland or Canada. There is a strong chance that these two events may lead to a final cold spell for the UK in late February/early March, with winds broadly from the north or north-east; this is obviously pretty speculative and subject to change. For the next few days, I advise checking BBC forecasts/the Met Office site/Met Office Youtube channel for detail as to how the cold spell is likely to affect your area.
Finally, I'm intending to post a 'lesson' tomorrow.
