Gairdner said:
So are my ungentlemanly ways of the past forgiven then? :blush:
Do you think Ferrari and Alonso can sustain a challenge and perhaps take back the title this year?
I never held it against you, mate - I was disappointed because I could see what was coming, but that was all.
As to your question - I think you need to ask Nostradamus - there are so many superb drivers around at present with small gaps between cars in terms of quali and race performance, and the difficulty of adapting to revised tyre specs this year is adding to the unpredictability. I'd be surprised if Alonso wasn't up there come September/October, but there are many imponderables:
1. I doubt that McLaren will improve quickly enough for Button to challenge for the title this year, but, if he's able to win races later-on this season, he'll be a spoiler for the title contenders, thereby affecting their championship campaigns.
2. Vettel won the title last year not because of Alonso being taken-out at the first corner at Spa or running out of road at Suzuka but because RedBull perfected the so-called "Coanda" effect to restore much of the exhaust-blown diffuser downforce lost after the 2011 season due to rule changes regarding the exhaust. What they perfected was being able to jack the rear end of the car up in the air without losing downforce from the diffuser as they had mastered using exhaust gases to "seal" the sides of the diffuser, thereby allowing increased ride height without losing downforce caused by air spilling out of the sides. This meant that they were able to run the car in a "nose-down" trim which helped Vettel's driving style - by provoking oversteer on turning-in to a corner, he got the car turned earlier than the others and was able to stop the oversteer by counter-instuitively standing on the accelerator - the engine revs increased, the exhaust gases increased, so the downforce from the diffuser shot up and stopped the oversteer. Any other car on the grid would have spun. What I'm geting-at is that the other teams have got the hang of this, plus these latest tyres don't like the initial oversteer as much, thus reducing RBs advantage (along with the flexible front wing they had which allowed that steep angle to be used without graunching the front wing on the ground).
3. Mercedes are a potential spoiler as well. Last year they had a good car but lost their way in developing it through the season, thereby dropping-off the pace. If they can develop the car better this season then Lewis could well be a championship challenger. Raikkonen and Lotus could also be in contention, and they also need to use their smaller budget wisely in order to stay at the front If they do, expect Kimi to grab race wins by relentless pace.
In short, who knows? I finished mid-table in our Fantasy F1 competition last year which shows you that following the sport for years means nothing in terms of predicting winners.