I'm surprised you had that much where you are.Snowy enough to stop me getting up the Lane last night had two attempts but even with a run up I just slid backwards before I got past my own garden. Fortunately not into the ditch. Downhill and the long way round - trees overhang the steep bit that way round.
Today sees the start of the transition away from our recent cold northerly showers regime into the next phase of the evolving pattern. A cold, clear, icy morning for many with still some lingering showers in the east which will eventually die out. It will remain that way over most of England and wales but a front will bring cloud and light rain to N. Ireland and Scotland during the day. This will track south east overnight into tomorrow so that cloud and light rain/drizzle wll affect more or less everywhere.The result of this will be temps much nearer average than of late.
On to this morning's gfs. Over the weekend the UK remains under the high cell centred just to the west thus a dry NW airflow pertains,perhaps some showers in Scotland. But a glance at the overall pattern at Monday 00 does begin to indicate which way the pattern is going to evolve during the week. We still have the two upstream energy flows. one from the Canadian vortex around Greenland north of the UK and the other from the eastern seaboard tracking north east. It is this upper trough which appears to play the key role initially.
As can be seen the upper trough to the south west initiates a complex surface low pressure area with centres dotted around whilst sending energy around the high pressure and by Tuesday 00 there is a front lying south of Iceland on which wave depressions are forming Over the next 24 hours one such tracks east into southern Norway whilst at the same time the front moves south to bring strong winds and ran to Scotland and the main trough to the south west is still moving steadily north east putting the high cell over the UK under pressure. All of this maneuvering does bring the other energy flow into play as the front marks the boundary between the cold and war air.
By 00 Thursday the front has moved a little south bringing Scotland into the cold air but far more importantly the low to the west is revving up and beginning to track east with the associated front and rain already into western parts of the UK. Over the next 18 hours the low crosses the UK into the North Sea, splitting into two centres as it does so, which not only brings rain and gales, perhaps severe, to many parts of the UK but north easterly blizzards into Scotland as the cold air is now dragged further south. The delineation is quite marked on the 850mb chart.
From here the UK is plunged into a cold showery transient northerly but is certainly best left here because any subsequent evolution is very dependent on what has just been described as happening precisely as detailed which is very unlikely
At the beginning the general theme of the ecm is much along the lines of the gfs but it quickly varies into what does appear a much 'cleaner' evolution.
At T96 it has the front and well developed wave over Iceland with the high cell firmly over the UK.
By T120 the elongated wave stretches to the shores of Norway whilst the front has moved south over Scotland and phased with the main low west of Ireland whose associated front is orientated N/S west of Ireland, This has tended to engage the colder quicker and drag it south in mid Atlantic
By T144 the front to the west has traversed the country and the low is now centred over Stornoway which brings heavy rain the Scotland and N. Ireland with severe westerly gales in many areas..
During Thursday the low tracks into southern Norway veering the gales NW then N and initiating wintry showers in many areas in the cooler airstream.
Meanwhile while all of the has been going on the Bermuda high pressure has been surging north east (courtesy of the cold trough in eastern N. America) and so by T192 we have another high cell the west of the UK waiting to be zapped by the east bound energy and 170kt jet. But I'm getting ahead of myself
Don't worry, Colum, my anxiety and its effects are pretty bad this morning, so I'm struggling as well.A skim over damp ground that froze too slippy to get up nowhere near deep enough for chains, nowhere was really covered though North Leeds looked like it got hit worse. Coming over the ridge last night was blizzard enough to mean I couldn't use my main beams.
Edit: I apparently lost the ability to form a proper sentence for this post. I apologise for this lapse.
Wow at the 12z GFS, blizzard/snow storm of the century for northern and western parts of UK next Friday into Saturday! Caveat that GFS tends to overblow depressions at that range, but the fact that it's been showing for a few runs or more now, worth keeping an eye on. The slow-movement of the deep low over the N Sea very unusual and appears to be tied in with the stationary long wave trough over Europe and its removal from the strong NLy jet further west meaning it doesn't have the impetus to move quickly on like normal depressions that move west to east or southwest to northeast. Alarming charts! 12z UKMO and GEM not quite so alarmingly deep or slow with the Nly trigger low, tending to track the low away NE into Scandi as per UKMO or NE across N Germany then Baltic as per GEM - where it deepens rapidly.
Yes, still of interest. Thanks for posting. P.Are the quotes from the Netweather member of any interest?
While you're thinking about that, I thought I'd give advanced warning of a possibility (and it is only a possibility this far out) of a deep Atlantic depression which may cross the country next Friday. It seems that, rather than being on a strong zonal jet running as usual from west to east, it may arrive from the north-west and head south-east, with multiple potential impacts including flooding in the south and south-west, blizzards in the north and north-east, high winds and, conceivably, coastal flooding as water is forced southwards in the North Sea. It might well come to nothing, but I'll try to keep members informed, and, if it's still showing on the models early next week, it might be advisable for you to check forecasts/Met Office website. To quote Netweather's senior forecaster:
Most places today will be cloudy with rain and light drizzle as a weak warm front slips down the country. More concentrated in the west and south west with the south east more likely for sunny intervals. Scotland more general rain and quite windy on a cold front. This will clear Scotland and the north of England overnight and into tomorrow but cloud and drizzle may linger further south. Temps milder than of late.
By Monday 12 the general synopsis in the Atlantic arena and north west Europe is not unfamiliar. The main trough to the south west off the eastern seaboard stretching north east, high pressure to the south west of the UK ridging north and the other trough to the NE/E. This translates on the surface to a complex low pressure area to the south west stretching north with an associated front which then runs east south of Iceland as it runs around the high cell still parked over the UK and centred south of Ireland. This front is quite active as it sits on the boundary of the cold and warm air and wave depressions form on it and run east over the next 24 hours as the main trough the south west pushes north east. Thus by Tuesday there are quite strong westerly winds over Scotland as the front nudges south whilst at the same time the low out in the Atlantic is pushing north east.
Over the next 24 hours this general movement continues and by Wednesday 12 the front and rain are orientated over Scotland whilst the low is 997mb south west of Ireland with the high pressure just about hanging on in the south. And there is a marked delineation between the cold and warm air,
What happens next is quite complex to put it mildly (according to the gfs anyway). As the low moves east across the UK and the front south various centers form in the main trough but the general picture is for rain spreading east over most of the country with quite possibly snow on the northern edge of the front over N. Ireland, Scotland and N. England.The low deepens and tracks east to be near Oslo by 18 on Thursday which, with the help of amplifying high pressure in the Atlantic initiates very strong northerly gales over the UK with many squally wintry showers, particularly in the north, and even perhaps more concentrated falls of snow there.
The northerly regime remains over the weekend, albeit abating all the while, as the low, after initially deepening further, slowly fills in the north Sea as the upper trough is sandwiched between the two ridges and slips slowly south. But wait, what's now happening in the north west? best left here as all this detail at the end of next week is just that at the moment and many changes await.
The ecm has a front and heavy rain impacting the UK by T114 (Weds 1800) with the low west of Ireland and possibly south westerly gales. Over the next 24 hours the low does deepen to 974mb and tracks ENE to be over Oslo whilst the front moves south east bringing heavy rain to all areas. Behind the front the wind veers northerly, perhaps touching gale force in the north, accompanied by frequent wintry showers before a transient ridge edges in on Saturday which rapidly gives way to the next frontal system arriving from the north west with more rain and gales. At which point there is an 140kt jet dipping SE just west of the UK
With high pressure centred to the south west the UK is in a gentle north westerly airstream today. But there are a couple of fronts wandering south east so much of England and Wales in warm sector conditions so cloudy with sporadic light rain or drizzle gradually clearing leaving sunny spells milder than of late. Further north fry and sunny. Overnight another front will encroach from the west bringing some rain which will slowly traverse the country clearing the east coast tomorrow,
So on to this morning's gfs, By Tuesday 12 the high pressure is to the south of the UK and with the upper trough away to the south west the surface depression is lying WSW of Ireland with the associated front running north east just impinging on Scotland and into southern Norway. This is the boundary between the cold and warm airmasses and it is quite active with wave depressions forming on it. Over the next 24 hours the front is pushed a tad north as the low to the south west tracks north east to be NW of Ireland by 12 Wednesday with the UK in a mild south westerly airstream.
By midday Thursday after a very complicated set of manoeuvres the main low has deepened to 974mb and is in the north North Sea and all the fronts, which brought much wind and rain , have finally cleared leaving the UK in a strong NW/N airstream with gales and plenty of snow in Scotland as the Arctic air becomes prevalent.
Over the next couple of days the low moves into Scandinavia as a deep upper trough becomes established to the east whilst the Bermuda high pressure surges north east in the Atlantic all of which leaves the UK in the strong Arctic airstream with frequent wintry showers of snow in most places but in particular the north and coastal areas. Very cold, max temps on Friday only around 2C in England and of course the wind chill has to be taken into account. But by 12 Saturday changes are afoot in the west as the high cell comes under attack from troughs shooting out of the Canadian vortex and in particular the very strong jet leaving the south east seaboard of the US
The energy emerging upstream splits the ridge and the jet swings the aforementioned Canadian troughs south east to the west of the UK leaving the latter in a slack pressure regime, dry and very cold.
At Thursday 00 the ecm has the airmass boundary front just north of Scotland into southern Norway with the other front and rain Scotland to the west coast of Ireland and the UK in a strong, mild south westerly. Over the next 18 hours the rain(front) tracks south east across the country clearing the SE with the surface wind veering NW/N in it's wake as the Arctic airstream plunges south. Thus frequent wintry showers, particularly in the north and coastal areas with gales in Scotland and N. Ireland
The northerly regime persists through Friday and by Saturday 00 the upper trough is aligned to the east with HP ridging into Iceland to the west but coming under pressure from the same areas as in my earlier post.
The jet splitting and winging around the high is a tad further east than the gfs and by 00 Sunday the low is over SW Ireland on it's way south east just clipping the far south west of the UK
No need to apologise Chris, post when you feel up to it. P.Apologies for the late post today - we were busy and my anxiety yesterday and this morning was very bad, though it's improved significantly this afternoon:
Thanks Johnny. I think the general pattern of a mild few days, followed by rain and wind on Thursday and something colder and (for some) snowy on Friday and early next weekend is fairly likely to transpire, but the details and how the colder period at the end of the week goes are still to be determined - that said, I haven't caught-up with today's model discussion yet!Don't let it be a strain on you Chris m8. The way things have been changing around we can always just draw lots and have as good a chance of getting it correct as not !
JohnnyO. o/
Interesting indeed- no wonder meteorology is such a large part of aviation training.Was giving a short 60 minute flying lesson on Saturday. Never seen low cloud and general murk come in so quickly and equally, never been so pleased to get wheels back on tarmac - flying at 400' at one point dodging turbines.
Passenger never batted an eyelid, but with all the aviation planning we do, still amazed just how quickly things can change with uk weather.
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