Well put HM.
I think I should apologise if my bantering with HM caused anyone to panic.
What made me think about this initially was when I started out DE shaving I bought two sampler packs, one from West Coast Shaving and one later from Paul. It was my intention to work through the packs and keep a note of the blades I liked. Then when I had tired them all I would make an informed assessment of the ones I liked and balance this with how much I could get them for. This seemed a logical way to decide which blades I bought in bulk.
About halfway through the samplers I took this picture when I was sorting the samplers into a new box.
A while later I posted this on B&B on a blade thread and the first comment was that is was a shame that many of them are no longer available. I thought “I am still working through the sampler, what do you mean they aren’t available?†I looked at the picture and noted I also had some blades that were not even on the picture because I had finished them all (eg Swedes). I checked and indeed they were out of production but still freely available although stocks were diminishing fast.
I then did some simple calculations. The way I view it is 100 blades may sound like a lot, however assuming most people shave once per day and use each blade three times, then that 100 blade pack is less than a years supply. Me saying I have nearly 2000 blades may seem ridiculous but in raw numbers it is roughly 16 years supply. Considering I am 37 I do hope to be able to use most of them (pending some breakthrough like the laser razor or a move away from a steel blade that is actually better).
I did not have a target it was just that after taking this all into account I decided to buy at least 100 of any blade I liked. I got better deals on some blades for packs of 250 and I may sell some when I narrow it down to my favourites. Right now I don’t know what my favourites are but I prefer to choose later.
There is this illusion that we live in a free market, this is only partly true. We can indeed have whatever we want, but within the boundaries of what they want to sell us. I notice things like Gillette making sensor cartridges less attractive in terms of profit to the retailer, I still see Sensor blades but they mostly relegated to a single slot in the places that do still sell them, eventually they all but disappear. Recently Gillette offered Fusions at £2 in Asda, this was not a play for market dominance it was a move to get people from one model of their Razor to the other and it worked; they sell their preferred product by making the other less attractive.
Every global company (including mine) targets growth areas, the only real meaty growth areas left in the world for Western products are the BRIC countries HM mentioned. Each enterprise has their own acronyms and divisional boundaries but basically it is the same set of countries. This group represent half of the world’s population and so far are under developed (in their opinion) but are set for a burst of growth over the next cycle or two of the boom/bust merry go round. They are one of the few areas where the growth potential is so huge that even in these slow times they are still buying, OK right now it is less than before but they are still investing where we are not.
Over the last ten to 15 years most business leaders in the west have justified their existence by gaining market share and beating their competitors. Now I notice the record has changed; many of them now speak of adding shareholder value by growing revenue in the emerging markets. My company recently offered us a relocation program to go to these growth markets as we are planning major offensives in market penetration in these areas over the next few years. I don’t doubt other companies like P&G use this same business intelligence and their CEO’s and CIO’s are crowing about this to show how they will increase revenue and ultimately profit to the shareholder (and make their bonus fatter).
To put this in the context of DE shaving, right now there is probably not a great ideal of opportunity but as we do emerge from this depression Gillette and every other company will be following the Microsoft business model. Find a market and then dominate that market by destroying or buying all competitors in that market, even if this means you sell your product at low or no profit for a while. If you have a large war chest you can afford to sell at cost to also deprive your competitors of profit, as they try to meet your subsidised pricing level you effectively starve them out.
At the same time as this strategic play is made the marketing people go to work. With the right marketing you can make people interested in anything. They then go to look at your product, they see it is keenly priced, they use it and get used to it, if you are lucky most will not want to go back and become dependant on it. That is when you jack the price up.
HM put the circulatory part very well so there is no need to repeat that. But I do understand the argument that DE has been around for many years and survived other threats so why now is it under a more serious threat?
I think mainly because previously closed markets are opening for trade and these markets are where the remaining blade manufacturers are located. Markets that opened up a while ago are actually becoming too expensive for many companies as the standard of living and expectations of the population increase. People want cars and convenience foods and along with it convenience shaving and everything else.
How I see this playing out is that there will not be a shavocalypse with a big mushroom cloud. Most of the remaining plants are based in Asia and exist to supply that area of the world, as local demand falls some plants will inevitably have to close. Others will close some product lines as they try to keep their heads above water and the choice will narrow. I think you are right philmac, there probably is sufficient demand to keep a few plants open around the world but no where near how many there are now. There will always be those even in the growth areas who do not move on because they like their DE and others like up who return to DE along with some newcomers, but collectively this will reduce it down to sustainable work for much fewer manufacturers. I predict that demand will drop and we see a few more drop and the market which will stabilise when supply meets demand again; this will leave a handful of DE blade manufacturers in a niche market.
I hope I am wrong, perhaps a serious competitor to Gillette will emerge from Asia but I would expect any serious competitor will most likely compete in the same playground as Gillette and that is cartridge razors. I am not saying DE is doomed by any means, against the best efforts of Gillette DE shaving has marginally increased in the west as some reject the ludicrous prices for cartridges, but I see this as a blip. The choice of DE blades available to us will narrow over the next few years.
I don’t know if the end result will be worse or better because I have had some really crap blades from India and China. Lets hope the evolutionary theory holds true and only the best ones survive.