P.
I saw the warning from Malcolm, the chap I usually quote who lives in Camborne. If he mentions any nasty weather due in his area In always mention it here to let you know, just as anything affecting the Pennines gets mentioned for the Count and anything SW Scotland gets mentioned for Johnny.Well you was spot on about the rain last night Chris, proper heavy and lasted all night, the river 100mtrs behind the cottage was looking dangerously high this morning when I walked Taz, but the rain has stopped for now, thankfully!
A general overall assessment of this week as wet and windy will not be far from the mark before a pattern change gets underway.
A bit more detail. After yesterdays shenanigans a much quieter and drier day for most with a couple of exceptions. Low pressure north of Scotland is still bringing strong winds and rain to the northern areas there and a frontal wave is currently traversing the south west bringing more rain there. This should clear quickly this morning followed soon after by a clearance in the north leaving a very transient ridge.
I say transient because overnight fronts, associated with a complex low pressure area covering the whole of the eastern Atlantic, are already bringing rain and strong winds to the west which spreads east during Tuesday, the rain heavy in some places, before clearing leaving blustery showers. But this not all. By 1800 another wave is forming in the circulation of the main low west of Ireland.
This low develops very quickly and rapidly deepens as it interacts with the jet and tracks north east to be 964mb over the Hebrides by 0600 on Wednesday en route to south west Norway. This will bring gales to western areas of the UK, perhaps severe in Scotland and gusts in the 55-65Kt range cannot be riled out. Also heavy rain in the north and rain across the rest of the UK as the associated front tracks south east during the day.
As noted the low moves away quickly leaving the UK in a strong, showery, westerly but changes are afoot. The upper trough has been moving steadily east, not before another surface low has nipped across Scotland, and amplification is taking place with the Bermuda high pressure ridging in the Atlantic and the Azores doing likewise north east through central Europe. This achieves in two things. Firstly it disrupts the trough and creates a cut off upper low in the Mediterranean/ N. Africa region and secondly halts the west-east movement of any systems and once more establishes a battle between the twin energy systems leaving Canada and the southern US and the high pressure. The stage is thus set.
The ecm doesn't deepen weds low quite as much 974mb northern Scotland at 06 but still gusting 55-60 kt region in the western Scotland and northern England.
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It is most appreciated Chris, thank you. P.
It is going to get significantly milder tomorrow and Wednesday, even for your area, Johnny. I suspect any heatwaves will have to wait until late spring, though!
I'm OK, thanks Johnny - I've just been busy today.
It would appear that Georgina hasn't as yet developed into an individual enclosed system and is not as deep as the models were predicting. Still looking at strong winds and gales in many places and moderate/heavy rain, currently over Scotland and N. England, moving south east during the day clearing the south east by 1800, Behind the front a strong westerly wind and squally showers which is already the name of the game in N. Ireland.
This continues overnight but by midday tomorrow the much mentioned amplification is underway with the twin HP systems, the Bermuda and Azores, surging north and north east respectively whilst the upper trough over north west Europe begins to deconstruct. But the UK is still under he influence of low pressure as a filling low drifts east so still showery and windy
The trough continues to deconstruct as the Atlantic ridge continues to nudge east over the UK thus Friday becomes the best day for a while as the winds and showers abate
But the ridge is somewhat transient as it comes under pressure from the quite intense upstream energy and the analysis at 1200 on Saturday epitomizes the forthcoming evolution in the medium term. We now have a cut off upper low in the Mediterranean as the result of the deconstruction and the Azores high pressure attempting to push north/north east but coming under constant pressure from the twin energy flows emerging from Canada and the southern States that are tending to merge in the western Atlantic. This tends to result in a compromise as can be seen on Saturday with weak fronts pushing through thus changeable conditions but very much tending to a N/S split and quite wet and windy in the north. A characteristic of this pattern
This can be summed up quite neatly by looking at this morning's GEFS 5-10 anomaly.
Friday still remains the 'window' between a front tomorrow that fragments over the UK and the next frontal system arriving on Saturday which tracks around the high pressure which is centred too far to the south west.
A much better day today after yesterdays wind and rain which can essentially be split into two halves. The eastern pert of the UK will generally be dry with little wind whilst the west will be subject to squally showers, particularly in N. Ireland and Scotland where thunder and hail could be involved. But these will also die out overnight and into tomorrow as a transient ridge moves east associated with some amplification to the west and the upper trough deconstructing in the vicinity of the UK
So make the most of Friday as by Saturday the eastbound energy has suppressed the ridge allowing fronts associated with a low south of Iceland to cross the UK bringing rain to most places.
These clear quite quickly and by Sunday the HP is attempting to ridge again but as can be seen systems are still sneaking around the top and a front is already impacting the north by midday Sunday and proceeds to track south.
As can also be seen, which of course complicates matters further, the aforementioned front is associated with our perennial cut off low to the south west and another energy channel, albeit it's journey south across the UK is driven from the north west.
The very recent update of the fax for Saturday shows an intense low to the north west of Scotland and a wet and windy day for all as the fronts cross the country
This morning's NA sat. image, apart from showing the showers down the western side of the UK, clearly shows the wodge of cloud south of greenland that divides the trough to the west and the ridge.
It is this trough that tracks quickly east, suppressing the ridge that bodes a wet and windy Saturday
So make the most of Friday then! I will dust off my surf board and shake the sand from my wetsuit
So make the most of Friday then! I will dust off my surf board and shake the sand from my wetsuit
You really wouldn't want to see a photo of me in a wetsuit........really!
P.
