UK meteorology

Very well explained Chris, even I could understand that. Well done. P.
 
Although the weekend and early next week should be milder and fairly dry away from the far north-west, models seem to be hovering between a renewed Northerly and mild zonality beyond the middle of next week, with a powerful area of low pressure possibly moving in from the Atlantic next Friday (8th). Until the models find agreement for this period, I'm not going to post much here as I've already made confusing posts trying to keep you updated on the changes in model output.
 
I will,however, post this comment from the poster I usually quote, on the subject of the European model ensemble mean anomaly (in other words, when the ensembles are run, they produce many outputs, each with a slightly different set of initial data, and this is discussing how the areas of higher and lower geopotential heights differ from normal in an output that is the mean average of the individual ensemble members):
 
Boab said:
Saw a few flakes of snow in London today.
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Quite a few heavy snow showers earlier here in Norfolk, but dewpoints are increasing so showers are more rain and sleet now. Fortunately, temperatures will increase from tomorrow.

I ought to use this as an opportunity to mention that my posts on model discussion might be rather sparse for now, as I'm not sufficiently knowledgeable to be able to accurately interpret all the output, nor am I wealthy enough to subscribe to all the sites needed to view operationals, control runs, ensembles, anomalies, long-range probabilistic models, short-range high-resolution models etc., so I rely on the discussions on Netweather to guide my interpretation and enable me to view esoteric charts. Unfortunately, despite setting around 150 members on "Ignore" there, the quality of discussion is awful at present, with Moderators unable to delete posts or move them to the threads they should be in quickly enough to keep up with the rate at which these posts are made. Most posters at present seem to be idiotic snow obsessives who are posting rants that the models refuse to promise them the conditions they expect. This, in turn, is putting-off the serious posters whose analysis I use to guide my own perspective. I should, however, be able to post the daily views of the chap I usually quote in here - he's one of the few who prevents his preference (in this case for mild weather at this time of year) from clouding his analysis.
 
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Count of Undolpho said:
Heavy snow in York apparently none here, cold but clear.
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It's mainly an east coast event, Colum, due to the northerly flow. You may see snow late next week given that the most likely outcome is that the south will be mild and wet, with the north drier and cold; where those airmasses meet, someone will probably get significant snowfall.
 
I thought I'd post this rare evening analysis of the ECM model from my usual contact:
 
Well, although we were around 2C most of the daylight hours and the temp dropped dramatically as soon as it darkened we've avoided snowfall here on the west coast, apart from our nearby crags and munroes. On the other hand, it didn't rain today or yesterday, which is always a result !

JohnnyO. o/
 
I can live with mild and wet, normal for down here! P.
 
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