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Just when I thought it was safe to go out!
Just when I thought it was safe to go out!Dutton on the storm due at the weekend:
Just when I thought it was safe to go out!
It isn't him, Johnny! Anyway, I don't think what we're due at the weekend is anything unusual for this time of year, especially given what the winters of 2015/6 and 2013/4 were like.If I watched too much Dutton I may never venture out again ! Now I understand why you sometimes get down Chris ... give up Dutton, he's not goodly for us !
JohnnyO. o/
By 12 Tomorrow the low will be east of Belfast 976mb, Winds will start picking up as well particularly tomorrow but more below on that.
According to the gfs the band of strong winds at 06 are concentrated in the Fastnet, Lundy and Plymouth areas and obviously Cornwall gusting in the 50-60kt range. By 12 these will have abated a little but the whole of Wales and southern England will be in swathe of winds gusting 40-50kts.
By 1800 the low is 982mb in borders area with blustery showery conditions pertaining over England and Wales and in general (difficult to pin down gust speeds) in the range 35-45Kts.
All of this is followed by some transient ridging but meanwhile a deep Atlantic low is drifting north in mid Atlantic and it's associated fronts and rain have tracked east and are effecting the UK by 12 Monday. This clears but a second front quickly arrives with a little wave that has formed that scoots quickly NE skimming NW Scotland so more showery rain on Tuesday with only the far south escaping. But now we reaching the point where the frequenty mentioned amplification is set to occur and by 12 Wednesday the Atlantic trough is digging south flanked by the ridges west and east.
Also as has frequently been said the precise orientation of the trough and ridge are important when it comes to sorting the surface detail which is illstrated quite well on the 12 Thursday chart with the area of low pressure being kept to the west and the UK in a light southerly drift with temps up around 20C in the south. This status quo is reinforced through the weekend as the western arm of the high pressure commutes north into Greenland resulting in the UK remaining in the southerly drift with temps way above normal. I must emphasise again that this is miles away from being nailed down and this just this morning's take by the gfs.
And just to illustrate not being nailed down. By the middle of next week the ecm does initially follow the gfs with the amplification but crucially the ridging to the west does not block energy/troughs tracking east then south east via N. Canada/Greenland and by 00 Saturday northern UK This suppresses the UK ridge resulting in a brief westerly regime and the perennial N/S split before the next depression swings south east into the North Sea initiating a cool, showery north westerly at the end of the run. All of this merely emphasizes the uncertainty from midweek onwards.
A little blowy then!Update from Netweather discussion on the next few days:
You couldn't believe how much abuse I have been getting at work today. Rest assured .....all will be OK on Sunday. I am at work and am incapable of causing mayhem and destruction in more than one place at once!
I doubted it'd get past a couple of pages, Johnny, given that I only started it to warn about high winds on the way last winter! Thanks to all who have humoured me and contributed to this thread - if I ever get too boring,please PM me and I'll shut up.45 pages so far in under a year, turning into quite the popular thread this one Chris. Bet even you didn't really anticipate this level of interest when you commenced it last November.
JohnnyO. o/
Later in the day rain will spread into Scotland as fronts encroach and these will track south overnight and through Sunday introducing cooler air as the surface wind veers northerly. This actually is the main feature of the current analysis as a new intense low has formed in the circulation of the main trough to the east and is 976mb Skagerrak by 00 tonight, This will initiate NW/N gales down the North Sea, perhaps violent storm 11 for a time in places, and 8 or 9 along the east coast of the UK.
By Monday high pressure has moved in and the evolting still conditions a widespread air frost is on the cards Monday morning. But this quickly comes under pressure from the main trough to the NW/N and associated trough running south in the Atlantic so that by Tuesday front(s) and light rain are tracking south across the country. Albeit finding it a struggle against the high. This is more or less repeated on Wednesday as the main low continues east and the trailing front runs from Scotland to points to the south west.
From here a scenario evolves that has been hinted at by the anomalies which is a split flow in the eastern Atlantic with the high pressure/trough combination to the south west diverting much of the trough/energy ENE leaving much of the UK in a slack gradient, probably cloudy with patchy rain.
But this analysis is very short lived as another amplification bout ensues with the high pressure in the Atlantic once again surging north and the main trough tracking sharply south east just to the east of the UK. Thus by 12 Sunday the surface wind has once again veered northerly introducing much cooler air with showers along the northern and western coasts. Once again one run, one model, subject to revision. And once again it's worth repeating that apart from western Scotland this is a very dry outlook with temps a little above average but dipping below towards the end of the 10 day period.
The split flow mentioned above is still apparent on this morning's GEFS anomaly.
The ecm still making rather more of the wave on the front at the end of next week and at 00 Saturday has the low over south west England with the band of heavy rain tracking north east into the North Sea during the morning Thereafter it pushes the ridge in a tad quicker before the Atlantic assume dominance by Tuesday.
Time to get the winter coat out!New video from Liam Dutton (sorry Johnny!) on the impending change to cooler conditions:
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