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I'm a pessimist so I'm never disapointed
I'm a pessimist so I'm never disapointedEmphasis on the "might" there, BM. It's still 9-10 days away, or, in weather model terms, T+216 to T+240 (the models go by hours from the time the run was initiated). Much can change over that period; even in Northern Hemisphere set-ups, that's as far as you can predict forward with any degree of confidence from the output of deterministic models; at some point, the data points scatter, a moment at which meteorologists say that FI (Fantasy Island) has started. Essentially, Shannon Entropy, named after the man who described it, Claude Shannon, takes-over and uncertainty/disorder increases sharply as a consequence of Chaos Theory.
I'm a pessimist so I'm never disapointed
No , I just see it as a welcome bonus when things go well, so never dissapointed and occasionally very pleased!Not even when everything goes well ?
JohnnyO. o/
Last night's EPS is certainly not indicating any sustained influence from the Azores HP and has it making a brief appearance next weekend before relegating it quite rapidly south west next week and then probably the proverbial N/S split.
Meanwhile back on the farm. Today starts off pretty good in eastern areas but the next low and fronts are approaching from the west and the latter will track east during the day bringing sporadic rain followed by squally showers.By 00 the low is over Scotland and it continues to move east thus tomorrow in a strong north westerly, perhaps gales in exposed areas, with again squally showers.
So by midday Tuesday the low has drifted and filled west of Norway with some very transient ridging over the UK but the next depression has formed within the circulation of the main low east of Greenland and is tracking rapidly east and is west of Ireland by that time. But by 00 Wednesday it has deepened to 980mb and is over the Isle of Man with the associated fronts traversing the country with a band of rain. It could also be quite windy for a short period with perhaps severe gales in the west.
From this point the low continues to track quickly east and with the Azores HP amplifying to the west the wind veers northerly over the UK with showers quite likely and rather cool. But the HP continues to reorientate and ridges more to the north east and brings some more settled weather to the UK over the weekend. But the problem is, as ever. that the centre of the high stays rooted to the south west and thus the energy generated upstream can always run around to the north and threaten the UK as it squashes the ridge .Ergo the north not quite as settled as the south and leaves open the question the sustainability of any HP influenc
An unsettled definately autumnal week ahead for all, with conditions more akin to late October than early-mid Sept. Lots of rain and strong winds at times and feeling chilly, indeed northern parts will struggle to hit more than 15 degrees all week, some places languishing in the 11-13 degree range at times - very very poor for the time of year. Limited brightness as well will make it feel preety miserable.
Tuesday night / early Wed likely to bring the first gales of the season, with a nasty little low pressure system set to track through central Scotland, strong winds on its southern flanks, Irish Sea coastal areas look most prone, with severe gales possible at times, and lots of heavy rain as well.
Thankfully there appears to be a settling down of conditions on the cards as we approach the weekend, as the azores high looks set to ridge in and push away the chilly unsettled n atlantic air,
Batten down the hatches!They are quoting Westerly gusts of up to 75mph for Tuesday - Wednesday which could be interesting at mine.
Structural problems, Colum?They are quoting Westerly gusts of up to 75mph for Tuesday - Wednesday which could be interesting at mine.
Ah, I see. It's a beautiful part of the world, though. You might not be too pleased with Liam Dutton's latest forecast:I'm on the side of Wharfedale valley with a hill in front to funnel the wind, if it's Westerly. So house is solid but it can get a bit crazy with the trees and such.
Pretty grim, I'm afraid.What a joy!
I'm on the side of Wharfedale valley with a hill in front to funnel the wind, if it's Westerly. So house is solid but it can get a bit crazy with the trees and such.
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