UK meteorology

New storm/convective forecast from Netweather:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=
 
Autumn Rain
DH Lawrence

The plane leaves
fall black and wet
on the lawn;

the cloud sheaves
in heaven's fields set
droop and are drawn

in falling seeds of rain;
the seed of heaven
on my face

falling — I hear again
like echoes even
that softly pace

heaven's muffled floor,
the winds that tread
out all the grain

of tears, the store
harvested
in the sheaves of pain

caught up aloft:
the sheaves of dead
men that are slain
now winnowed soft
on the floor of heaven;
manna invisible

of all the pain
here to us given;
finely divisible
falling as rain.

Not from memory but Google Fu.
 
Rather than writing a lengthy explanation of what the models are showing for the next few days, I thought I'd quote a senior Netweather forum member (an ex-Met Office employee) from earlier today:


As you can work out from his comments, the short-to-medium range appears pretty unsettled, with the Jet shifting from flat zonal to more meridional and heading south, thereby bringing some fairly deep Atlantic depressions across the northern half of the country, although the wet and windy conditions will affect the south.
 
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Blademonkey said:
A final burst of warmth.....and then thrown back into Autum, I shall make the most of that weekend
Click to expand...
Emphasis on the "might" there, BM. It's still 9-10 days away, or, in weather model terms, T+216 to T+240 (the models go by hours from the time the run was initiated). Much can change over that period; even in the most stable and predictable of Northern Hemisphere set-ups, that's as far as you can predict forward with any degree of confidence from the output of deterministic models; at some point, the data points scatter, a moment at which meteorologists say that FI (Fantasy Island) has started. Essentially, Shannon Entropy, named after the man who described it, Claude Shannon, takes-over and uncertainty/disorder increases sharply as a consequence of Chaos Theory.
 
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