UK meteorology

Never mind snowpeople, you may yet have a limping JohnnyO plus Mrs. JohnnyO & a rather charming French Bulldog arriving ! Open up that east wing, I'm not superstitious and the grey lady won't annoy us.

JohnnyO. o/
If you turned up with a dog you'd have two constant shadows varicoloured not grey - or rather the bulldog would.
 
Interesting perspective from an ex-Met Office forecaster-turned Netweather member referencing several posters in the Model discussion thread who search the outputs at this time of year for snow:


Note the discussion of the low developing in the right entry region of the jet, then with the base of the trough becoming diffluent, the developing low exits to the left, as I explained in one of my earlier lessons. Thanks to the strength of the jet in this area, and the strong diffluence which is forecast to develop in the shallow, zonal jet, this bears all the hallmarks of classic winter cyclogenesis and it's therefore not surprising that, as this is due to happen just as the low arrives over the British Isles, the Met Office and Irish Met have named the storm and issued Amber Warnings.
 
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Blowing a gale last night which I didn't see coming, wood piles blown down and a very rickety aerial on the end house made me move the car. One of the lads from up Howarth way had to tie his garden furniture down.
I thought it was Thursday for the high winds?
 

Pretty breezy here last night as well - I thought I'd mentioned windy for some on Wednesday, but the strength of last night's wind caught me by surprise. I'm now going tocheck the FAX charts for tomorrow, and will update later.
 
Updated Met Office amber warning for tomorrow(http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map):
 
Met Office concerned that Doris could undergo Explosive Cyclogenesis AKA 'bombing', wherein the central pressure drops rapidly and winds intensify quickly. What this means is that, on current charts, it doesn't appear to be a particularly well-formed low with a particularly low central pressure, but don't let that make you think it won't come to much!
 
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Quick update - simplified computer-generated diagram of the expected development of "Doris" doesn't show the hallmarks of Sting Jet formation, however, I wouldn't want to discount the possibility. Even if it doesn't occur, it still appears that it's going to get very stormy! BTW, I'm gong to make Sting Jet cyclogenesis according the the Shapiro-Keyser model of cyclogenesis the subject of the next 'lesson', having only really understood it myself today.