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Need a good thunderstorm to clear the air here, except the girls want to sleep in the new tent as a try out...
How are they with storms?Need a good thunderstorm to clear the air here, except the girls want to sleep in the new tent as a try out...
An update on last night's medium term anomalies as I see them and what appears to be an upcoming major test of the very impressive block
The major players are the north Canadian vortex and associated trough into the north west Atlantic, which is connected to the main vortex N. Russia and cold European trough with in between the European and Azores still combining to formulate the strong ridge running north west into Iceland.
But the orientation of the trough in the north west Atlantic has shifted a tad north east which effectively diverts more of the energy exiting north America south around it, albeit it still diverges in mid Atlantic around the block and down to the Iberian low pressure.
So currently the UK remains in a very slack pressure area with high and low pressure to the north and south so likely the temp will remain above average but leaving the det runs with a lot of niggly regional detail to sort.
But the question is will this transfer of energy and movement of the trough eventually wear down the block? Probably not rapidly?
On to a few more details
Over the next couple of days the UK will largely stay under the influence of the warm, moist, unstable air which is conducive to triggering heavy showers/storms with the possibility where these occur of localized flooding. As the airmass slowly shifts north, thus introducing quieter conditions in the south, then so will the showers/storms.
Currently there is still shower activity over Wales.
whilst, apart from the north and north west, over the rest of the UK a muggy cloudy day dawns, But as heating gets under way convection will be triggered in many west and central areas spreading north and storms could crop up virtually anywhere. Where the sun appears it will actually get quite warm with the usual caveats vis Haar and the eastern coasts.
During this evening and overnight there will be a lull in the storms but another humid night with a lot of cloud around in central areas and the Haar ingressing inland again in the east. But as temps rise again tomorrow more heavy showers and storms are triggered concentrated more on central and eastern regions but spreading north west into Scotland where their could be some very intense stormy outbreaks. Another warm day but 'cooler' weather slipping in to the south west.
The overall pattern on Sunday sees the high cell to the north west becoming more influential with any residual showers mainly in Scotland and the north east but also that means back to a north easterly drift whilst elsewhere another very warm day.
Monday sees a marked west/east split with warmer conditions in the west with the chance of the odd shower but much cooler and cloudier in the east in the brisk north east wind.
Tuesday will be a generally dry and quiet sunny day but still with the west/east bias with more cloud in the latter half of the country
Surprisingly OK these days, the littlest used to be a upset by them but we watched a lightning storm across the valley from her bedroom window a couple of years back and she's been fine since then.How are they with storms?
I'm pleased to hear that - storms scared me until an embarassingly late age, and, if we get one close overnight I'm still a touch wary.Surprisingly OK these days, the littlest used to be a upset by them but we watched a lightning storm across the valley from her bedroom window a couple of years back and she's been fine since then.
A quick look at the GEFS NH analysis at the beginning and end of the short range from last night's 1800 run which continues to signal the start of a major transition with the amplification of the ridge over North America and displacement of a vortex lobe/trough into the north west Atlantic whilst at the same eroding the block that has been so influential in recent weeks in dictating the weather over the UK.
Back to this morning
Overnight most of the cloud that persisted yesterday in the south has disappeared as the drier air moves south resulting in a clear start to the day. but in eastern Scotland the north east of England low cloud and mist from the North Sea has once again encroached inland. So today will be a reversal from yesterday with a generally sunny day and warm in many areas, particularly in the south but the cloud could well hang around in the north east.eastern areas and thus depressing the temp. But by late evening more humid unstable air is once again pushing north from France into the south.
The humid air will continue to push north overnight and through Thursday whilst also initiating showery, perhaps stormy, outbreaks along the south coast and the south east. Despite this another warm day in these parts and elsewhere with the usual caveats vis the north east/east although it should be less cloudy.
So the overview on Friday sees the upper low to the south encircled by the ridging of the Azores and European highs thus a fairly quiescent period beckons with the surface low and moist air continuing to push north with more showery outbreaks in the south but generally tending warm and sunny with the possible eexception of the usual areas in the north and east.
Little change from this scenario on Saturday
And the north/south split continues to be the percentage play on Sunday with showery/thundery outbreaks likely in the south and west whilst sunnier and drier in the north with the usual proviso vis eastern coastal areas. But still generally remaining warm over the weekend with temps a little above average
Some time next week, yes. I think the spell we've had with the stronger arm of the jet running so far north and thundery lows drifting up from the continent has been unusual in its longevity, and expecting it to last for much longer would be unreasonable. Thanks to that set-up, the only rain most areas have seen for the past 2-3 weeks has been storm rain which is hit and miss and can be damaging to gardens and crops as opposed to the prolonged but usually moderate rainfall we get from summer Atlantic depressions.Back to Meh! is the quick version...
Well, when you live in a neo-Gothic castle on the edge of the moors, I suppose maintenance is necessary!I need to get the outside tap fixed
A quick look at a couple of the EPS short range 500mb NH anomaly charts from last night which illustrate quite well ( imo) the amplification of the North American ridge, resulting in a split vortex lobe, with the more relevant upper trough ( from the UK viewpoint) over Newfoundland. This is then due to track east towards Iceland with a very strong westerly upper jet running across the Atlantic south of it but that is outside the remit of this thread. The GEFS pretty much in agreement with this.
Meanwhile a familiar pattern unfolds over the UK over the next few days. Dawn breaks after a fresh clear night in many areas apart from eastern coastal regions where low cloud remains the problem and further south along the south coast where more humid air accompanied by showery outbreaks has encroached during the night. It may even give the odd storm. The showers and humid air will track north as far as the southern Midlands during the day thus intermittent sunshine albeit another warm day. Clearer skies further north but the usual caveat vis the NE/E coast. The humidity charts, the 0300 geostationary WV, and the Camborne 00 sounding illustrate the above.
The cloudy humid air will continue to move north overnight and through Friday thus spreading the shower area but these will tend to fizzle out during the day although as temps rise a few more could be triggered in the south. So generally another warm day, sunnier away the above area, but with the usual proviso of course.
The overall analysis on Saturday sees the upper low to the south encircled by the ridging Azores and European highs which sets the tone for the weekend. Worth noting developments upstream are under way with the trough over Newfoundland. Thus a continuation of the humid air creep with showery outbreaks possible over England and wales, interspersed with sunny intervals,. Another warm day, particularly in the south with the usual caveat east coast regions where mist and low cloud may well pertain.
Sunday a not dissimilar day
Further emphasis on the north/south theme on Monday as the drier and sunnier weather, with perhaps the odd shower whilst more concentrated thundery outbreaks spread north over the south of England. Another warm day, temps still above average in the west and north, but humid in the south.
And the NH 500mb anomaly at T120
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