UK meteorology

Great info again Chris and I am starting to learn the lingo a little but can you advise me what "GFS" is please? It seams to be mentioned constantly on the forum and I am becoming lost in translation. :)
EDIT: and "UKMO?"
GFS is the main weather model of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which, along with the National Weather Service and NASA, forms the US equivalent of the Met Office and Environment Agency (many of us here in the UK don;t realise that atmos[heric science is a substantial part of the workload of NASA). The European equivalent is the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF), hence reference to the ECM model, and the Met Office version is the UKMO (literally UK Met Office). Each of these model providers has a wide range of model types, from short-range high-resolution precipitation forecasts, through the mid-range models Malcolm usually mentions (UKMO, GFS and ECMWF), which are collectively known as NWP, or Numerical Weather Prediction, types, through to long-range probabilistic models which show the most probable outcome for parameters like rainfall, temperature, windspeed etc. in terms of whether they're expected to be below-average, around average or above average over the next few weeks. By contrast, the mid-range outputs are described as "deterministic" or "NWP" show the most likely situation (whether atmospheric heights, temperatures at various levels, rainfall, wind direction etc).

To put it another way, the GFS, ECM or UKMO might produce an output showing temperature at the 850 hectoPascal (hPa, same as milibar) height of 20 degrees C for later next week, which is in fact what some are indicating at the moment, whereas a long-range probabilistic forecast might show the 850 hPa temperatures in a months' time as most likely to be between 10 and 20% below average for the time of year (I haven't checked what they're actually showing, BTW).
 
I posted quite a few 'learning' posts a couple of years or so ago, which you can find through the first half of this thread. I keep meaning to ask the Mods to help me separate those posts into a new thread, but the workload would be quite heavy, I suspect.
 
Regarding models, there are many I've never heard of, and most of them show details I don;t understand, so bear in mind what I'm explaining is simplistic stuff. Most of the NWP models have different output types, all of them deterministic, each of which covers all the different parameters.
 
GFS is the main weather model of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which, along with the National Weather Service and NASA, forms the US equivalent of the Met Office and Environment Agency (many of us here in the UK don;t realise that atmos[heric science is a substantial part of the workload of NASA). The European equivalent is the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF), hence reference to the ECM model, and the Met Office version is the UKMO (literally UK Met Office). Each of these model providers has a wide range of model types, from short-range high-resolution precipitation forecasts, through the mid-range models Malcolm usually mentions (UKMO, GFS and ECMWF), which are collectively known as NWP, or Numerical Weather Prediction, types, through to long-range probabilistic models which show the most probable outcome for parameters like rainfall, temperature, windspeed etc. in terms of whether they're expected to be below-average, around average or above average over the next few weeks. By contrast, the mid-range outputs are described as "deterministic" or "NWP" show the most likely situation (whether atmospheric heights, temperatures at various levels, rainfall, wind direction etc).

To put it another way, the GFS, ECM or UKMO might produce an output showing temperature at the 850 hectoPascal (hPa, same as milibar) height of 20 degrees C for later next week, which is in fact what some are indicating at the moment, whereas a long-range probabilistic forecast might show the 850 hPa temperatures in a months' time as most likely to be between 10 and 20% below average for the time of year (I haven't checked what they're actually showing, BTW).
Thank you Chris for such a fascinating and indeed informative reply. Your help and input is truly appreciated.

Now back to a little more studying. ;)
 
I posted quite a few 'learning' posts a couple of years or so ago, which you can find through the first half of this thread. I keep meaning to ask the Mods to help me separate those posts into a new thread, but the workload would be quite heavy, I suspect.
If you go back and report the posts you want to separate then we can do it quite simply.
 
There are some great pictures from the southeast electrical storms on BBC News today

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Concise post on the likely evolution for the next few days from a senior Netweather member:

Interesting model runs at the moment, all latching onto a plume scenario next week of various intensity. I wouldn't get too hung up on the exact details at this range, and as ever I would stay very cautious about the suggestion of extreme uppers.. a factor that will come into play is the amount of cloud that is likely to become trapped within what looks a very unstable airmass.


On a personal level these are not my favourite synoptics, give me high pressure overhead/domination rather than a muggy unstable airmass from the south..


Longer term - mid atlantic high/scandi trough scenario a strong likelihood - as low heights to the SW are forced to splinter with associated trough, and high pressure can then build strongly to its north. Orientation of the high is all wrong for an injection of continental warmth, look at the cold uppers on the eastern flank of the high and cold air advection - only one way the core of heights is going and that is west.. We remain locked in a meridional jetstream, and the UK sits on the boundary between the cold and warm side of the jet. Plume events often bring sudden switcharound from heat to chill..
 
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