UK meteorology

OP
chrisbell
Messages
6,252
Location
Norfolk, England
Ah yes Johnny, but it didn't say I agreed with him!;)
Anyway, more from our ex-Met Office man as he sees the next few days:
Today sees the UK between pressure systems. Starting off fine and frosty in many places but the E/SE still influenced by yesterday's cold front hanging around so remaining cloudy until late on. Sunny elsewhere but fronts approaching from the north west will bring cloud and rand rain to NW Scotland during the day. Overnight and during tomorrow this will move south east leaving clearer and cooler weather in their wake but showery and quite windy in places particularly northern Scotland.



After a miserable attempt by the Azores to ridge NE on Friday the frontal wave that has nipped around the high pressure is centred over northern England whilst at the same time becoming incorporated in the circulation of the deep low ENE of Iceland. Thus a wet Friday evening and night for most turning quite wintry in Scotland but the wave is moving very quickly and by 12 Saturday is over Denmark. This heralds the much vaunted but very brief amplification as the wind veers northerly bringing some general wintry weather with snow on the hills in the north



From this point the week and including next weekend can be summed up as the usual battle between the eastbound energy and the cooler air and the warmer Azores high pressure which the former wins. The jet is actually being forced further south across the US by the trough in western North America before swinging up around the Azores high cell and it does tend to get disrupted by the interaction with the high pressure before by the end of the week the more unsettled weather becomes established Thus a pretty mixed bag for the week with periods of mainly light rain interspersed by sunny interval before heavier rain and high winds enter the fray but this getting way too far ahead of ourselves.
 
OP
chrisbell
Messages
6,252
Location
Norfolk, England
After a cool and (in the south) wet day tomorrow, Remembrance Sunday is set to be cold and bright, albeit with showers down the east coast, which will be wintry over high ground. Monday will also be cold, but milder, Atlantic-driven conditions with wind and rain will re-establish themselves by midweek. Towards the end of next week, the likely evolution is uncertain, with a cold, showery north-westerly flow or a stalling area of low pressure over the UK seemingly more probable than the alternatives, which could include an unseasonably warm southerly flow or a full-on westerly with deep lows moving across the UK in rapid succession.
 
Last edited:
OP
chrisbell
Messages
6,252
Location
Norfolk, England
Quoted from the member on Netweather whose short-term analysis I trust and frequently quote:
Regarding the weather today the UK can be divided into two sections. South of a line central Wales,south Midlands and towards the south east pulses of rain, sometime heavy, lasting most of the day as a slow moving front associated with the wave moves south, The wave is over Weston Super Mare by Sunday 00. Also quite breezy in the south west for a time. I can attest to that as currently moderate rain and very gusty here. Elsewhere much brighter but in Scotland a fair NW breeze with some squally wintry showers, of snow in the norther hills. Quite a temp contrast as well with much milder air south of the front. By Sunday the front has cleared and the wind has veered northerly over the whole of the UK so much cooler with wintry showers in Scotland and along the coasts.



By Sunday night the ridge has moved in leading to much calmer conditions and resulting in a widespread air frost Monday morning. The ridge is quickly brought under pressure by fronts and rain encroaching the north by late afternoon.



This battle between the high pressure and the energy emitted from the north west (although not exclusively) is the feature of the week which the former quickly loses and by Thursday 00 another developing low on a front has tracked north east and is 996mb just NW of Scotland bringing more rain and quite strong winds to the latter and N. Ireland. The low continues on it's merry way NE and the fronts and rain track south east across the UK on Thursday but at the same time another low has developed south west of Iceland and slipped into the general circulation and by Friday 00 is tracking east en route to Scotland.where it duly arrives Friday evening. So quite windy here, and N. Ireland, and quite possible some significant snowfalls, certainly on the high ground.



This is the signal for some renewed amplification with the Azores HP ridging north to the west and the trough plunging south all of which once again veers the surface wind northerly bringing wintry sowers to Scotland and the coasts which is just about where wecame in so a good place to leave it.
 
OP
chrisbell
Messages
6,252
Location
Norfolk, England
More from aforementioned Netweather member:
Today first thing yesterdays front is still hanging around the far south with cloud and light rain but that will quickly clear and leave the whole of the UK in a cold northerly which will be quite strong in Scotland. Thus plenty of showers many of a wintry mix in N. Ireland, Scotland and down the coasts but they will also encroach inland. These will tend to become less as the day progresses and the ridge moves east but still likely down the east coast.

Overnight calm and clear conditions in most areas leading to widespread air frost Monday morning and a cold bright start to the day but fronts and cloud and rain quickly spread into the north west suppressing the ridge.



The fronts clear east during Monday and with the High pressure now to the south east the UK is generally in a light and moist west/south west drift so quite cloudy with some light out breaks of rain in places with temps a little above average.By Thursday 00 a deep upper trough is situated in the Iceland area with a pathway to the trough around the Azores This pathway is acting as a conduit for a low that has formed on the front in the Azores area to track north east and by said time is 977mb south east of Iceland and the front is already encroaching N. Ireland and Scotland with cloud and rain and quite strong winds. The front duly tracks south east to be clearing SE England by early Friday morning by which time the aforementioned low has deepened to 959mb NE of Iceland and is dragging colder air down in it's circulation and some quite wintry conditions are affecting Scotland with strong winds and frequent snow showers on the higher ground with possibly some quite heft falls which continue through Friday.



From this point it gets quite messy and I suspect one should view the detail with some suspicion. There is again some amplification with the HP ridging NW and the negatively tilted upper trough on it's western flank but a little surface low shoots out of the trough to bring some quite wet weather to all on Sunday
 
OP
chrisbell
Messages
6,252
Location
Norfolk, England
More from aforementioned Netweather member:
Today first thing yesterdays front is still hanging around the far south with cloud and light rain but that will quickly clear and leave the whole of the UK in a cold northerly which will be quite strong in Scotland. Thus plenty of showers many of a wintry mix in N. Ireland, Scotland and down the coasts but they will also encroach inland. These will tend to become less as the day progresses and the ridge moves east but still likely down the east coast.

Overnight calm and clear conditions in most areas leading to widespread air frost Monday morning and a cold bright start to the day but fronts and cloud and rain quickly spread into the north west suppressing the ridge.



The fronts clear east during Monday and with the High pressure now to the south east the UK is generally in a light and moist west/south west drift so quite cloudy with some light out breaks of rain in places with temps a little above average.By Thursday 00 a deep upper trough is situated in the Iceland area with a pathway to the trough around the Azores This pathway is acting as a conduit for a low that has formed on the front in the Azores area to track north east and by said time is 977mb south east of Iceland and the front is already encroaching N. Ireland and Scotland with cloud and rain and quite strong winds. The front duly tracks south east to be clearing SE England by early Friday morning by which time the aforementioned low has deepened to 959mb NE of Iceland and is dragging colder air down in it's circulation and some quite wintry conditions are affecting Scotland with strong winds and frequent snow showers on the higher ground with possibly some quite heft falls which continue through Friday.



From this point it gets quite messy and I suspect one should view the detail with some suspicion. There is again some amplification with the HP ridging NW and the negatively tilted upper trough on it's western flank but a little surface low shoots out of the trough to bring some quite wet weather to all on Sunday
 
Top Bottom