UK meteorology

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chrisbell
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Norfolk, England
Not a bad weekend away with the kids - the rain held off throughout - until we were walking back down from Hadrian's Wall then it absolutely HAMMERED DOWN.
Better than it could have been!
This week is likely to see a north/south divide, with the Azores high ridging across the south and east, delecting Atlantic systems to the north and west.
 
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Well hopefully @chrisbell is far too busy enjoying the sunshine to post here so it's my go:

It's still bloody hot!
There may be some rain falling on Southerners over the next few days - HA!!
I believe parts of Scotland have reached 15°C so please remember not to leave any gingers in parked cars.
@JohnnyO the big glowy thing in the sky is called 'The Sun' it's best not to look at it.

Hopefully normal service will be resumed soon in the meantime have a cracking weekend one and all.
 
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chrisbell
Messages
6,202
Location
Norfolk, England
Well hopefully @chrisbell is far too busy enjoying the sunshine to post here so it's my go:

It's still bloody hot!
There may be some rain falling on Southerners over the next few days - HA!!
I believe parts of Scotland have reached 15°C so please remember not to leave any gingers in parked cars.
@JohnnyO the big glowy thing in the sky is called 'The Sun' it's best not to look at it.

Hopefully normal service will be resumed soon in the Attach filesmeantime have a cracking weekend one and all.
Apologies, chaps - anxiety and trying to water several pots outside in addition to flowers and vegetables! It'd been rather hotter than I'd like, and, from the forecaast, it doesn't sound as though we're getting any rain before the weekend at least. I should get back to following the discussions this week.
 
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chrisbell
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6,202
Location
Norfolk, England
Malcolm part 1 for 3rd July:
The overview for the rest of this week and into the weekend is much the same as yesterdays assessment, and thus continuing warm ,sunny and dry with just some regional vagaries But an event does occur within the period which does impact towards the end of the latter. And that is the strong ridging in the NE of North America and the ejection of a trough into the North Atlantic at T72 on last night's gfs and ecm runs

It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few days.



A little more detail albeit weather wise there isn't much

After a clear night in most areas any low cloud and mist that has encroached inland in NE Ans E regions will burn back to the coasts as another warm and sunny day ensues elsewhere, the Shetlands excepted, with the highest temps probably in central southern regions as sea breezes kick in around the coasts





Another clear night and warm and sunny day tomorrow, usual caveats, but still cloudy over the Shetlands and the low pressure and instability is never that far away from the south coast and during the early hours and through the day some showery activity may effect the south west and possible other southern regions,









By Thursday the aforementioned trough has appeared in the western Atlantic and nearer home a cold front is fizzling out on some renewed ridging from the south west. Thus although another sunny and warm day, particularly in the south which may trigger a few hefty showers, a cooler and cloudier day in the north west.



 
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chrisbell
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6,202
Location
Norfolk, England
Part 2:
Friday and Saturday sees the Atlantic trough split by further amplification of the Bermuda high pressure which creates another cut off upper low whilst at the same time initiating impressive height rises over the UK as the European high also begins to amplify.



Thus as pressure builds over Friday and Saturday warm/hot and dry is the name of the game with perhaps the odd isolated shower/storm in the south.



 
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chrisbell
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6,202
Location
Norfolk, England
So I was pretty much bang on the money then?
Not far off! I must have trained you well.:p:D

Having scanned the latest model discussions on Netweather, it seems that there's a chance of some respite by mid-month. Either the high is going to head to our south-east, allowing zonal Atlantic conditions into the usual north-westerly areas, with a drop in temperatures and showers in the south, or, more likely at this stage, the high will ridge north on an alignment to our east, drawing-up even hotter conditions from Iberia
(which is currently experiencing daytime maxima of around 40C:eek:), but giving the trough in the mid Atlantic a chance to move in from the west, which is the classic Spanish Plume scenario which generates a thundery end to our heat.
 
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chrisbell
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6,202
Location
Norfolk, England
Malcolm part 1:
The overall picture this morning is a continuation of the sunny, warm/hot and dry conditions, albeit some regional vagaries over the next couple of days, before the high pressure once more consolidates over the weekend and into next week. I have gone into the mechanism behind this previously so suffice it this morning to just post the simple progression of the North Atlantic 500mb anomaly that illustrates this quite well



Some meat on the bare bones although there isn't a huge amount to get the teeth into.

After a pretty warm and sultry night in many places today will be hot in central/southern/eastern regions of England and this will trigger some thundery outbreaks later in the day. Elsewhere still a tad cloudy in the far south west but the main variation today in the north where a cold front, currently over N. Ireland and Scotland, will track south east leaving cooler (relatively speaking), and clearer air in it's wake. Thus a fair temp spread today.not forgetting sea breezes in coastal regions





 
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chrisbell
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6,202
Location
Norfolk, England
Part 2:
After another warm night in southern regions tomorrow will be another sunny day after early morning cloud burns off in the south east and again there is the possibility of some hefty showers in the south and as far west as Wales where it will again be hot, But, also again, a tad coole rin the north for the already stated reasons and also cloudy in N. Ireland



As we have already seen high pressure starts to consolidate by saturday with the trough and surface fronts west of Ireland struggling against the ridge so another very warm day, hot in the south, portends with perhaps some cloud edging into the north west.



Sunday another very warm day but cloudy in the north west and west with possible some light, patchy rain as the cold front fizzles out within the confines of the ridge.



A not dissimilar day on Monday but it does illustrate the importance of the orientation of the ridge as once again an onshore wind is initiated along north east coasts and thus some cooler temps and perhaps some low cloud.

 
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