Shavocalypse - will it happen? Discuss.

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304
This phenomena was mentioned in another thread. A very interesting theory and I thought it deserved a thread of its own.

From what I understand, the theory is that eventually it will not be economically viable to produce and market DE blades, as the Fusion will dominate/saturate the market.

A few points that occurred to me:
- DE blades have been in production since 1904, and have survived a variety of new gadgets and gizmos (injectors,cartridges, electrics)
- If single edge blades for injectors are still available then surely there will be a demand enough to stimulate production of DE blades
- Will Fusion actually achieve the domination we fear? In a couple of years there will be a new cartridge to be marketed.
- Look at the variety of cartridges, disposables etc, think of DE blades as just another choice in a varied and vibrant market (take a look at the shaving aisle in Boots or Tesco) place where consumer demand means there is a place for all sorts of products
- What is the state of DE sales and production? How has this changed in the last say 20 years.
 
There are a couple of things coming together in my opinion.

Since 1971 when the twin blade Gillette G-II arrived, the DE has been a "legacy" system. Most men starting shaving after about 1980 will probably know nothing else than cartridges. So instantly the DE user is a dying breed even if everyone that was using DE before 1980 continued to do so today (since DE equipment has become hard to source, there aren't many new users coming to the market). The DE part of the market is therefore shrinking and the commercial interest is thus also shrinking. It's a bit of a circular argument, because the razors went, then the blade market will follow it. You can't get blades, so why buy a razor.

In less developed parts of the world, the DE razor is used because it's cheap, and works. Now the marketing guns at P&G are starting to turn their fire on those less developed markets and pitching cartridges as an aspirational product - since it has a low opportunity cost, and heaps of international and local celebrity endorsements that apparent pressure will only grow (see above, but change 2015 for 1980). Therefore the local manufacturers of blades and razors will start to feel the pinch and will begin to vanish.

We're quite lucky at the moment that the BRIC market (Brazil, Russia, India, China) is still quite DE-oriented and they make up about half the world's (shaving) population - but all four of them are targeting more development and once the marketing men start to actually get their poison message across then they will start to fall as bastions of DE shaving. The only question in my mind is when that tipping point will be reached, not if it will be reached.

I used to work in a consumer goods concern and I can tell you that they have advanced plans for all sorts of things - take Brand X washing powder - since 1980 there have been around 10-15 formulations used in Western Europe. When they improve it here, they take the previous formulation to a less-developed market and whatever they were using there to an even less-developed market.

So although you see Brand X on the shelf of supermarkets in Kinshasa and Kilwinning, in apparently the same packaging there's up to 20 years of variance in the formula. The locals know no better, and it's all better than beating your smalls on a rock next to the river... So 20 year old formula (which is probably much cheaper to make) can be sold and still make £££ where it wouldn't be as well received in the home market.
 
The prospect of DE blades going out of production has worried me for years, yet it seems that the variety and quality of what's on sale now is better than ever. In fact, not so long ago I had trouble finding anything other than Wilkinsons and Boots blades, but now there's Personnas in Asda (and apparently Tesco under their own brand), and a really diverse selection via the web. Possibly this is the last hurrah for DE shaving as Hunnymonster suggests, but I tend to doubt that blade production will cease in my lifetime. I suspect that it's more likely that the big manufacturers will sideline DE production, but companies like Feather will find themselves occupying a viable niche, and of course Merkur will always have to produce ammunition for their razors ... yes, I know :roll: In that other thread I think someone drew an analogy with vinyl records which still thrive despite a drastically reduced market share on account of their long proven ability to make pleasant, non-irritating sounds: I think the comparison is pleasingly apt and, although I continue to build my stockpile, cause for cautious optimism.
 
Well put HM.

I think I should apologise if my bantering with HM caused anyone to panic.

What made me think about this initially was when I started out DE shaving I bought two sampler packs, one from West Coast Shaving and one later from Paul. It was my intention to work through the packs and keep a note of the blades I liked. Then when I had tired them all I would make an informed assessment of the ones I liked and balance this with how much I could get them for. This seemed a logical way to decide which blades I bought in bulk.

About halfway through the samplers I took this picture when I was sorting the samplers into a new box.

Blades.jpg


A while later I posted this on B&B on a blade thread and the first comment was that is was a shame that many of them are no longer available. I thought “I am still working through the sampler, what do you mean they aren’t available?” I looked at the picture and noted I also had some blades that were not even on the picture because I had finished them all (eg Swedes). I checked and indeed they were out of production but still freely available although stocks were diminishing fast.

I then did some simple calculations. The way I view it is 100 blades may sound like a lot, however assuming most people shave once per day and use each blade three times, then that 100 blade pack is less than a years supply. Me saying I have nearly 2000 blades may seem ridiculous but in raw numbers it is roughly 16 years supply. Considering I am 37 I do hope to be able to use most of them (pending some breakthrough like the laser razor or a move away from a steel blade that is actually better).

I did not have a target it was just that after taking this all into account I decided to buy at least 100 of any blade I liked. I got better deals on some blades for packs of 250 and I may sell some when I narrow it down to my favourites. Right now I don’t know what my favourites are but I prefer to choose later.

There is this illusion that we live in a free market, this is only partly true. We can indeed have whatever we want, but within the boundaries of what they want to sell us. I notice things like Gillette making sensor cartridges less attractive in terms of profit to the retailer, I still see Sensor blades but they mostly relegated to a single slot in the places that do still sell them, eventually they all but disappear. Recently Gillette offered Fusions at £2 in Asda, this was not a play for market dominance it was a move to get people from one model of their Razor to the other and it worked; they sell their preferred product by making the other less attractive.

Every global company (including mine) targets growth areas, the only real meaty growth areas left in the world for Western products are the BRIC countries HM mentioned. Each enterprise has their own acronyms and divisional boundaries but basically it is the same set of countries. This group represent half of the world’s population and so far are under developed (in their opinion) but are set for a burst of growth over the next cycle or two of the boom/bust merry go round. They are one of the few areas where the growth potential is so huge that even in these slow times they are still buying, OK right now it is less than before but they are still investing where we are not.

Over the last ten to 15 years most business leaders in the west have justified their existence by gaining market share and beating their competitors. Now I notice the record has changed; many of them now speak of adding shareholder value by growing revenue in the emerging markets. My company recently offered us a relocation program to go to these growth markets as we are planning major offensives in market penetration in these areas over the next few years. I don’t doubt other companies like P&G use this same business intelligence and their CEO’s and CIO’s are crowing about this to show how they will increase revenue and ultimately profit to the shareholder (and make their bonus fatter).

To put this in the context of DE shaving, right now there is probably not a great ideal of opportunity but as we do emerge from this depression Gillette and every other company will be following the Microsoft business model. Find a market and then dominate that market by destroying or buying all competitors in that market, even if this means you sell your product at low or no profit for a while. If you have a large war chest you can afford to sell at cost to also deprive your competitors of profit, as they try to meet your subsidised pricing level you effectively starve them out.

At the same time as this strategic play is made the marketing people go to work. With the right marketing you can make people interested in anything. They then go to look at your product, they see it is keenly priced, they use it and get used to it, if you are lucky most will not want to go back and become dependant on it. That is when you jack the price up.

HM put the circulatory part very well so there is no need to repeat that. But I do understand the argument that DE has been around for many years and survived other threats so why now is it under a more serious threat?

I think mainly because previously closed markets are opening for trade and these markets are where the remaining blade manufacturers are located. Markets that opened up a while ago are actually becoming too expensive for many companies as the standard of living and expectations of the population increase. People want cars and convenience foods and along with it convenience shaving and everything else.

How I see this playing out is that there will not be a shavocalypse with a big mushroom cloud. Most of the remaining plants are based in Asia and exist to supply that area of the world, as local demand falls some plants will inevitably have to close. Others will close some product lines as they try to keep their heads above water and the choice will narrow. I think you are right philmac, there probably is sufficient demand to keep a few plants open around the world but no where near how many there are now. There will always be those even in the growth areas who do not move on because they like their DE and others like up who return to DE along with some newcomers, but collectively this will reduce it down to sustainable work for much fewer manufacturers. I predict that demand will drop and we see a few more drop and the market which will stabilise when supply meets demand again; this will leave a handful of DE blade manufacturers in a niche market.

I hope I am wrong, perhaps a serious competitor to Gillette will emerge from Asia but I would expect any serious competitor will most likely compete in the same playground as Gillette and that is cartridge razors. I am not saying DE is doomed by any means, against the best efforts of Gillette DE shaving has marginally increased in the west as some reject the ludicrous prices for cartridges, but I see this as a blip. The choice of DE blades available to us will narrow over the next few years.

I don’t know if the end result will be worse or better because I have had some really crap blades from India and China. Lets hope the evolutionary theory holds true and only the best ones survive.
 
Audiolab said:
Considering I am 37 I do hope to be able to use most of them (pending some breakthrough like the laser razor or a move away from a steel blade that is actually better).

OK that's scary - I'm 38 and thinking the same way :shock:

Audiolab said:
How I see this playing out is that there will not be a shavocalypse with a big mushroom cloud.

You say that - but if you only like Blade Q and they stop making them, it might as well be.... especially if you only have 3 left and you're 38 :lol:

Audiolab said:
I hope I am wrong, perhaps a serious competitor to Gillette will emerge from Asia but I would expect any serious competitor will most likely compete in the same playground as Gillette and that is cartridge razors.

The sad thing is though that Gillette dominate the shaving world - something like 9:1 over Wilkinson Sword/Schick - it's almost the Coca-Cola/Pepsi market share that holds everywhere apart from Scotland.... the only market where the top selling fizzy drink isn't a cola, the truth is that Gillette nearly is the whole market already.

Audiolab said:
I don’t know if the end result will be worse or better because I have had some really crap blades from India and China. Lets hope the evolutionary theory holds true and only the best ones survive.

At least - the ones that are least offensive to use :)
 
Audiolab said:
PM sent on Blade Q, why have you not shared this before now!!

And yeah we don't like cola that much unless it is in a Jack Daniels or Vodka.

Barr Bru aaaaaaaaaah

cmon HM pif the Q blades :D
 
hunnymonster said:
I just ordered 1100 Astra Superior Platinums (for $100) from Barber Depot to be delivered to a friend's house in the US - once they land here, I shall update my Shavocalypse line (below)

I like it!!

But......the figure only really becomes meaningful if you also state your estimated life expectancy! :lol: Once the figures are equal you can rest easy. Oh dear, perhaps the relief to your system of knowing you are sorted for blades for the rest of your life will increase your life expectancy. Uh oh! Now you need more blades, but which ones should you buy and from where?! This is stressful and brings up your blood pressure. Maybe you'll cark it sooner than you think so you PIF some blades. Hmmmm.... so then SWMBO is pleased to have more space in the spare bedroom and treats you to some relaxing massages...calm....healthy..... :eek:

You get the picture, I won't go on! :lol:
 
hunnymonster said:
I just ordered 1100 Astra Superior Platinums (for $100) from Barber Depot to be delivered to a friend's house in the US - once they land here, I shall update my Shavocalypse line (below)

There's been a disaster in the planning! Due to a couple of unscheduled head shaves, I've prematurely changed blades 3 times... so my shavocalypse is now late August 2022 :shock:
 
hunnymonster said:
hunnymonster said:
I just ordered 1100 Astra Superior Platinums (for $100) from Barber Depot to be delivered to a friend's house in the US - once they land here, I shall update my Shavocalypse line (below)

There's been a disaster in the planning! Due to a couple of unscheduled head shaves, I've prematurely changed blades 3 times... so my shavocalypse is now late August 2022 :shock:

400 of the 1100 have arrived - so now December 2025 :D
 
hunnymonster said:
400 of the 1100 have arrived - so now December 2025 :D

There's been a reappraisal of the formula in my spreadsheet... since all blades are not created equal (and I get more shaves from some than others), I've introduced that into the spreadsheet so rather than having n blades meaning 3n shaves, those that have demonstrated longevity have been weighted as such - so if 4 shaves are got from "Brand Q" then that's accounted for in the spreadsheet.

I can hear you all gently snoring, so I'll stop now... but the date has jumped forward to June 2027 on that basis.
 
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