UK meteorology

This morning's post from Malcolm:
The front and rain will continue to track north east through today leaving sunny intervals and the odd shower in it's wake. The rain will fall as snow on the high ground in northern and eastern Scotland where it will become increasingly windy. Later in the day another belt of rain will affect the south west and also track north east. Temps continuing above average in most of England and Wales but cooler in the north and Scotland.







Through tonight and into Friday the wet and windy weather will continue in the north east and Scotland where accumulations of snow on the higher ground are likely whilst elsewhere sunny intervals but perhaps frequent heavy showers around the aforementioned belt tracking north east. Still temps holding up in the south but quite a N/S gradient and by 1800 the withchimg hour is upon us with a front approaching the north east coast preceding the colder air behind which is about to track south west.





Over the next 12 hours the front does travel south west perhaps accompanied by light snow in places and clearing by early morning which then establishes a very cold and quite strong easterly wind over all of the UK with snow showers in the east.





This scenario quickly becomes more complicated over the next 12 hours with the arrival of the upper low from the east to be over northern France accompanied by a cold pool. So now we have the continuation of the showers further north ingressing inland but also snow moving west from Kent along the Channel coast. Fine lines here and the detail certainly not set in stone at the moment,



As can be seen from the last chart the Azores is starting to ridge in the west towards the high cell and this continues into Monday shunting the very cold air south, note the WAA into Iceland and Greenland but there we must leave it.

 
The ECM:
The ecm has a fair covering of snow in the north as the front tracks south west Friday/Saturday and a fair ingress of snow showers in th NE of England and the south east east of a line Suffolk to Portsmouth through Saturday.

On Sunday with the upper low tracking along the south coast and the cold pool a little further north than the GFS there could be a fair mount of snow along the south coast and further north showers reaching well inland.

The wind chill will be the significant feature of Sunday with max temps struggling to get above freezing in many places.

Monday also sees the Azores ridging to the west and the very cold air shunted south.

 
Finally, the updated FAX charts valid for 00:00 Saturday through until 12:00 Sunday:
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New post from Malcom on the expected path of the front:
During this evening and overnight and through the first part of tomorrow the band of rain, snow on the higher ground, currently over the north of the country will continue to move slowly north east before coming to a halt. Thus it will remain wet with some snow accumulations in Scotland and the north east whilst at the same time another band of showery rain will also track north east from the south west into the Midlands.

It comes to halt because energy from the NE with the high cell moving south west starts becoming the dominant factor and a front starts tracking in the reverse direction to the south west from the north west bringing with it snow and much colder air by 00 Saturday. This heralds the start of the pattern change and the snowy and very cold weekend.





 
Malcolm's analysis of the GFS for the next 72 hours:
Today and overnight sees the start of transition to the very cold and snowy regime set for the weekend as this slowly sets in from the north east with only the far south west remaining, for the time, in the milder air

The band of rain and snow over the higher ground will continue in the north east as the front grinds to a halt with the wind increasing from the south east later in the day Showery rain further south will tend to die out leaving sunny intervals. But later this evening the front will start returning south west, with the rain turning to snow, under pressure from the high cell in the NE and will be joined by the cold front behind which lies the much colder air which is making progress by 00 Saturday.





The front will continue it's journey SW overnight and through Saturday morning but tending to weaken as it goes so perhaps sleet and rain entering the mix but behind the colder air is established with with frequent heavy snow showers streaming off the North sea in the increasingly strong wind, perhaps reaching gale force in exposed areas. Feeling very cold with a nasty wind chill.





But during Saturday evening the ubiquitous upper low has tracked west from around Lincolnshire across Wales to be NW of Cornwall by 00 Sunday accompanied by the cold pool which could well beef up the showers somewhat in the corridor of travel and further south. And by now it's feeling very cold.



So Sunday bitterly cold with possible disruptive snow in the east and south with possible less streamers further north but this is just according to the GFS and not definitive by any means.




Monday, although still cold with temps below average sees a respite from the bitter cold as further regime change gets underway with the Azores surging to the west linking to the high cell to our north and cutting off the easterly. Thus a much quieter period of weather with snow showers easing considerable.



 
More from his posts this morning:
This morning's updated fax charts for 00 Sat., 12 Sat, and 00 Sun, which tie in okay with the above.


The ecm takes the upper low and cold pool slightly further north than the GFS and doesm't have the same concentration of snow in the south but possibly some significant falls in the south west courtesy of a shallow surface low.

 
Apologies for the missing update today; my anxiety has been awful and I was distracted earlier by the livestream from the Goodwood Circuit Members Meeting (some fantastic historic and vintage cars). We've had snow on and off through the day here but without any accumulations.
No accumulations but a real temperature drop with wind chill not helping matters. P.
 
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