UK meteorology

Malcolm part 1:
A quick look at a couple of the EPS short range 500mb NH anomaly charts from last night which illustrate quite well ( imo) the amplification of the North American ridge, resulting in a split vortex lobe, with the more relevant upper trough ( from the UK viewpoint) over Newfoundland. This is then due to track east towards Iceland with a very strong westerly upper jet running across the Atlantic south of it but that is outside the remit of this thread. The GEFS pretty much in agreement with this.



Meanwhile a familiar pattern unfolds over the UK over the next few days. Dawn breaks after a fresh clear night in many areas apart from eastern coastal regions where low cloud remains the problem and further south along the south coast where more humid air accompanied by showery outbreaks has encroached during the night. It may even give the odd storm. The showers and humid air will track north as far as the southern Midlands during the day thus intermittent sunshine albeit another warm day. Clearer skies further north but the usual caveat vis the NE/E coast. The humidity charts, the 0300 geostationary WV, and the Camborne 00 sounding illustrate the above.









The cloudy humid air will continue to move north overnight and through Friday thus spreading the shower area but these will tend to fizzle out during the day although as temps rise a few more could be triggered in the south. So generally another warm day, sunnier away the above area, but with the usual proviso of course.

 
Part 2:
The overall analysis on Saturday sees the upper low to the south encircled by the ridging Azores and European highs which sets the tone for the weekend. Worth noting developments upstream are under way with the trough over Newfoundland. Thus a continuation of the humid air creep with showery outbreaks possible over England and wales, interspersed with sunny intervals,. Another warm day, particularly in the south with the usual caveat east coast regions where mist and low cloud may well pertain.



Sunday a not dissimilar day



Further emphasis on the north/south theme on Monday as the drier and sunnier weather, with perhaps the odd shower whilst more concentrated thundery outbreaks spread north over the south of England. Another warm day, temps still above average in the west and north, but humid in the south.



And the NH 500mb anomaly at T120

 
Malcolm's view part 1:
Today marks the abrupt end to a weather pattern that has persisted over the UK for quite a while now which, although bringing some very good weather to many, has not blessed everyone. Nothing unusual there and the transition to a more fluid regime probably will continue this regional bias. Anyway before some detail vis today just to emphasis that with today's low due to deepen as it passes to the north west even at this stage still some uncertainty regarding the specific area(s), and strengths, of the strongest winds.

After a relatively clear night with more cloud hanging around in western parts, it will be another warm day in Wales and England with the odd shower bubbling up in the south west and central areas but cloud and rain associated with the deepening low to the west will already be impacting N.Ireland and Scotland by midday. This will make inroads east and south during the rest of Wednesday with the winds also quickly picking up. Temps in England not too bad and favouring the east for a change.







The front and rain will continue to track south east overnight and during Thursday morning but it's this period with the complex deepening of the low to the north west that is causing some uncertainty but certainly areas in the north will briefly experience severe gales with gusts in the 70mph area, Once the front is away to the south east a westerly, cooler, and showery regime will be the order of the day.







 
Part 2:
By Friday the new pattern is well established with strong ridging in central Canada ( resulting in exceptional WAA) and a trough dominated Atlantic.For the UK it means a continuation of the shower westerly and temps nearer average but with a west/east bias. But out to the west the next, much less intense low, with associated fronts and rain is approaching western Ireland.





This shallow feature will move across the UK through Friday night/Saturday bringing with it some more concentrated periods of rain and a day of quite frequent, and likely quite heavy, showers in most areas



Sunday will tend to a drier and sunny day, temps maybe a tad above average, but still showers likely in central and eastern areas but fronts associated with the next Atlantic depression south east of Greenland are already bringing cloud and slight rain to western areas by evening.This will push east overnight but favouring the west and north

 
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