I'll keep this brief as I'm beginning to sound like a stuck record. Still differences in the medium term with the anomalies vis the orientation of the UK trough and the influence of the Azores HP in mid Atlantic where the ecm has a flatter more westerly upper flow. This will obviously impact the det. outputs so suffice it to say unsettled in this period with temps depressed but perhaps the high pressure taking closer order late in the period.
On to the here and now. today sees a cold front across the country tracking east so basically rain in the northern half of the UK and drier in the south. Tomorrow the low to the NW moves into Scotland so more wet weather there and elsewhere with fronts never far away.
Saturday midday sees the low 992mb in the North Sea leaving the UK in a showery north westerly airstream with the odd perturbation sneaking south in the western flank of the circulation. But after a very transitional ridge by 12 on Sunday the next low 977mb has arrived WNW of the Hebrides with the associated fronts and rain orientated Scotland/Wales/Cornwall with a strong westerly wind with gales in Wales and southern England, maybe even severe gale in exposed areas. Over the next 24hours the low tracks across Scotland into the North Sea thus veering the surface wind north westerly with frequent showers that will effect most areas, perhaps heavy and thundery.
A familiar story then ensues with some brief ridging before the next low and fronts arrive Tuesday evening portending some more very wet weather accompanied by gales with the strong jet running from the WNW straight over the UK
), here is Netweather's long-range autumn forecast:
