UK meteorology

UK storm forecast for today from Netweather:
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Synopsis

Upper low and collocated surface low pressure system will be parked off the west coast of Scotland during Thursday. A cool and unstable showery southwesterly flow will cover the UK, surface heating will allow some thunderstorms with risk of hail and gusty winds to develop.

... UK and IRELAND ...

An upper cold pool/trough will move east across the UK today, steepening lapse rates from the west ... enhanced by surface heating in sunny spells. There have been heavy showers from the word go across western areas this morning, with the steeper lapse rates to the west atop of seasonally warm SSTs. However, the steeper lapse rates spreading east combined with diurnal heating should see heavy showers develop more widely across the UK after a dry start in the east, surface heating will support strong/deep enough convection for scattered thunderstorms to develop into the afternoon, almost anywhere. Any storms will be capable of producing hail and gusty winds along with an isolated localised surface water flooding risk. 40-50 knts of deep layer shear will exist in vicinity of jet streak across southern England/Wales ... however, general cloudiness with limited sunshine / warmth will limit strong instability, so although convection may organise into lines/clusters here given favourable shear/strong wind aloft, severe weather threat looks minimal given weak instability forecast towards southern UK, but an isolated strong convective wind event can't be ruled out where strong winds aloft are brought to the surface in any strong shower/storm.
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