UK meteorology

This mornings' model runs suggest that, after the current unsettled setup with anotably southerly jet ends next week, there is uncertainty as two different evolutions are shown - either a longwave ridge developing to our south, pushing the jet further north (which one would expect heading into spring as the Pole warms and the polar vortex weakens) or a similar ridge development to our west, with a lobe of the vortesx setting-up to ur north and north-east, giving much of the north cold, windy and wet/wintry conditions as lows pass through and the wind direction swings to the north-west pulling in a polar maritime airmass, and with the best of the settled conditions further south with less potent frontal rain and spring showers behind cold fronts/occlusions.
 
Although the rest of the week appears generally unsettled, a south-westerly (tropical maritime) flow is due to establish itself from Wednesday until the early stages of the weekend, lreading to a warm-up, especially in the south; mid-teens Celcius are possible by the end of the week. The weekend appears more settled but perhaps not quite as warm, before more unsettled conditions and possibly another warm spelll next week. There is still the possibility of some colder conditions later in the month which would, if it verified, brind snow to much of Scotland and possibly the hills of northern England (though down here it would just be cold rain).
 
Apologies for the delay in posting the next lesson - with a bit of luck I should be posting it tomorrow. With regards to current model output, the latter stages of next week are still uncertain. While some of the numerical deterministic outputs show the southern half of the UK in a mild and relatively settled south-westerly airmass with most of any wet amnd breezy weather further north, some of the models are showing a southward movement of the jet, thereby bringing a cooler westerly or west-northwesterly to all parts of the UK by this time next week, allied to which, it wants to spin-up some short/medium-wave features next to the main upper low in the base of the longwave trough, which, if they verified, would be likely to bring some heavy, squally rain to the southern half of the mainland, and cooler conditions with frequent rain to the north, possibly wintry over higher ground.
 
Apologies again for my lack of activity in this thread - I had a busy week last week and had a flare-up of anxiety over the weekend. With luck, I should be posting the next 'lesson' later this week (possibly tomorrow).
 
You had an anxiety flare up ... what with accuracy of your suggested weather events and what the west of Scotland tends to experience you don't always calm me down either, Chris !

JohnnyO. o/
 
Count of Undolpho said:
Whenever you're up for it Chris, we're happy to wait.
Very breezy at the chateaux last night, absolutely howling down the valley.
Click to expand...
Cheers Colum, I'm not surprised at the wind there recently, given the situation. For reference, here's this morning's FAX chart:
20170314.0635.PPVA89.png

Good news is that the high in the Bay of Biscay is part of a longwave ridge which will improve conditions tomorrow and Thursday, before the Atlantic sweeps back on Friday and towards the weekend.
 
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